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 One year on 

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BTC uptime since 2014: 100%!

What an amazing difference a single year can make

May 2019

As if plummeting from S$27,000 to S$4,000 isn't enough drama, Bitcoin has, after a few months of levelling out, started, with a good deal of conviction, making up some of the lost ground. In fact, in a matter of a month or so, the world's flagship cryptocurrency doubled in value, zooming up from its latest low to S$8,000! Nobody really knows the cause of Bitcoin's resolute reversal, although, true to style, this isn't stopping anyone from submitting their reasons all the same.

And so, in the tradition of baseless crypto claims, let me toss in my 2 cents' worth.

1) One of the arguments that actually makes some sense as the main cause for Bitcoin's rejuvenation is Bitcoin's next halving, set for May 2019. Given that the pace of the number of new Bitcoin coming into being will then, once again, be reduced by a factor of two, it stands to reason that, apart perhaps from distinct downturn periods, Bitcoin's value will invariably rise after each such halving.

After all, from a halving day onwards, there's only half as many new Bitcoin to go around as before, resulting in competition for the newly available coins effectively doubling, even during sideways spells.

In fact, this is what we've been seeing during previous halvings; it turns out that these episodes are typically regarded by the crypto ecosystem as Bitcoin becoming even more rare than they already are, and, as such, they become more highly valued.

So, sure, whilst happenings in the past are no guarantee for the future, it looks as if we may be looking at the market taking an advance of next year's halving.

2) Right behind this halving being one of the causes for Bitcoin's 2019 resurrection is the supposition that institutional investors have finally started getting involved in Bitcoin in earnest. The argument being that there has been a lot of buzz from that sector for some time; perhaps some pension funds, hedging funds, and the like, have now actually initiated their purchasing program.

This could explain the decisive nature of Bitcoin's current swing upwards even in the face of the kind of news that would normally have pretty seriously dented any uptick, albeit historically merely temporarily. I mean, let's face it, last month's Tether/Bitfinex brouhaha and this month's hack of Binance would under normal (read: retail) circumstances resulted in more than just a wee tiny blip on the chart.

In fact, this time around, the bad news hardly registered, possibly due to the more relentless nature of institutional investors, as compared to retail investors. The latter tend to be spooked more easily, whereas the former have a more zoomed out view of affairs and are more inclined to let their buying program chug along, even when the news du jour is less than ideal.

This makes a lot of sense.

3) What makes sense as well is the conjecture that several countries' economies are in such dire straits that their populations have had to resort to buying Bitcoin in order to survive their currencies' meltdown. To wit, Venezuela, Argentina and, more recently, Turkey.

Possibly the British and the Italians have similarly ramped up their Bitcoin accumulation, i.e. so as to be able to fashion some sort of proactive defence against their countries' own presumed imminent economic strife.

4) Let's also not forget the way Bitcoin in general, now in existence a full decade, and its worldwide ecosystem in particular, have continued to improve in infrastructure, in reputation, in traction, indeed, in momentum. Bitcoin is striving more than ever.

Surely, even the staunchest of critics must by now at least be scratching behind the ear: This Bitcoin doesn't seem to be going away; perhaps there's something to it after all. Particularly in view of the ever-increasing number of media articles these days that mention Bitcoin in a positive light, there's no way around it: Clearly, Bitcoin's star is ever-rising.

In other words, it wouldn't exactly be surprising to hear that the number of Bitcoin believers and buyers have continued to balloon in the past 12 months, crypto winter notwithstanding.

Especially millennials, arguably the most cryptophilic segment of all, have started buying into Bitcoin wholesale.

Ok, so more and more people vying to get a hold of a finite commodity... No wonder its price is firming up.

5) Now, although we've been hearing about a Bitcoin ETF for ever it seems, there's little doubt that it's now just around the corner. As a matter of fact, it's not just Bakkt's ETF that's about to be rolled out. Other accredited investment institutions, like Fidelity, TD Ameritrade and E*Trade, also have crypto ETF projects chomping at the bit, if you'll pardon the pun. Undoubtedly, at least some of Bitcoin's recent renaissance is the result of ETF anticipation. And justifiably so. Incidentally, the way that Google searches hasn't kept up with Bitcoin's parabolic price action is also indicative of increasing institutional participation specifically.

Where is this latest Bitcoin surge going to end? Again, nobody knows. But given Bitcoin's tendency to exceed each previous ATH by a significant margin, pre institutional involvement, no less, Bitcoin's next peak could conceivably reach anywhere from S$50,000 to S$100,000. Or higher.

Thinking of getting some crypto? This is how you do it. / Buy some.

I wrote the above article myself and it expresses my own personal opinions and views on Bitcoin. I am unable to guarantee that the information and/or results will be correct. Furthermore, whilst I own some cryptocurrencies, I do not receive compensation for my writing and I have no business relationship with any of the companies mentioned in above article. In addition, I am not an investment advisor and above article is for purely informational purposes. Investors are advised to personally undertake adequate due diligence, or to consult a financial advisor in order to determine what assets - if any - are appropriate to invest in.

Bryan, a Singapore PR, has spent two separate stints in Singapore, spanning close to two decades. As is the case for most non-techies, although Bryan's first exposure to Bitcoin was around 2010, it wasn't love at first sight. However, Bitcoin's impressive resilience, meteoric rise and world-changing potential have converted Bryan, to the extent that he has now pivoted to fully commit to Bitcoin.

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